CHAP. VI.] THE ALTERNATIVE. 261 CHAPTER VI. THE ALTERNATIVE. BUT what is to be the alternative? Suppose the Turkish Government destroyed; what then? What do you propose to put in its place? It may be owing to my narrowness of vision, or to my ignorance of political science, but this is a question which it really does not seem to me so difficult to answer as it does to some men who are much abler and wiser than myself. One thing at least is certain: The Turkish Government has reached the nadir of the political firmament. Things cannot be worse than they are, and therefore the chances are that any change would be a change for the better. In saying this I am not forgetful of Lord Salisbury's solemn warning, on the first evening of the Session, that any attempt to coerce Turkey would be the signal for confusion and anarchy in every part of the Empire,' resulting in a frightful repetition of those terrible scenes of which we have heard so much.' My opinion of Lord Salisbury is such, that when I find myself at variance with him on a question of this sort, my first impulse is to distrust my own judgment, and to believe that he is right. But on this occasion I find my natural impulse in collision with certain facts to which I shall refer in their proper place. Meanwhile I shall, for the sake of argument, assume the correctness of Lord Salisbury's prognostications, and I say that I am willing to face the calamities which he fears as the price to be paid for the emancipation of the downtrodden populations of Turkey. Turkey might repeat, on a large scale, the horrors and abominations of Batak; but it would be for the last time. She would never again have an opportunity of disporting herself in that way. What, on the other hand, will be the consequence of letting matters take their course? Peace is not yet concluded with Servia and Montenegro, and cannot, if it be, be more than a truce. And what of Bosnia and the Herzegovina? of Bulgaria? of Crete, and Thessaly, and Epirus? The insurrection in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not dead, but in abeyance. It must be put down by force of arms, and the probability is that, before that is accomplished, the conflagration will have spread to other parts of the Empire. The disease of the Sick Man has now reached that stage which makes it reasonable to look for a much more frequent recurrence of its paroxysms. Turkey is financially exhausted. Where is she to find the means of replenishing her bankrupt treasury? The moneymarkets of the world are closed against her; and if she is not to die of sheer inanition, she must seek for relief in increased taxation. The reader knows by this time the figure at which the existing taxation of Turkey stands. Does he think it will bear augmentation? Is it possible to doubt that an attempt of the kind will irritate the disaffection of the Rayahs to the inflammability of a tinder, which any casual spark may kindle? Leave Turkey to her own devices, then. Let the Great Powers stand aloof, abstaining from coercion either out of a slavish regard for the letter that killeth' of obsolete engagements, or from the more honourable CHAP. VI.] COERCION OR INACTION. 263 dread of the events anticipated by Lord Salisbury. What will happen, suppose the Russian Army is demobilised, and the status quo restored in Turkey? I venture to predict that twelve months will not have elapsed before the tale of killed and wounded and outraged in the Turkish Empire will have far exceeded the list of victims likely to follow from the coercion of Turkey at the present moment. It is therefore, at the very worst, a choice of evils; and Lord Salisbury's choice-I say it with all respect and deference is the more dangerous of the two. Coercion, if the worst came to the worst, would at all events dispose of the malefactor, the great disturber of the peace of Europe, once for all. A laissez-faire policy lets him loose on society with the certainty that his crimes and misdemeanours will in a year or two make it necessary to set the police on him again, when the question of his coercion, with all its contingencies, will have to be faced anew, probably not under such favourable auspices. Confusion and anarchy in every part of the Empire!' Why, that is the normal condition of Turkey; and the authors of the anarchy and confusion' are the Turkish officials and the Turkish army. Destroy the Government of the two hundred Pashas -the fons et origo malorum-arm the Christians, disband the Mussulman army, and I venture to say that in less, probably much less, than two years there will be far more order in Turkey than there is now. Let the band of robbers, who flourish and fatten on the spoils of territories to the possession of which they have never established a righteous claim, be got rid of, and order would gradually rise out of chaos, even without the intervention of any external Power. But I mention this as a dernier ressort, and not as a policy to be recom mended. It would be preferable to a continuance of the present state of things, because anything would be an improvement on that; but the statesmanship of Europe will hardly confess itself driven to so desperate a remedy. There is at least one Power which has pledged itself before the world to coerce Turkey into obedience to the will of Europe: in concert with the other Great Powers if possible; alone if necessary. They little know Russia who dream that she will retire from the arena before her purpose is fulfilled. Over and over again at the Conference at Constantinople did the Russian Government declare, through the mouth of General Ignatieff and the pen of Prince Gortchakoff, her immovable determination to have some sufficient material force as security for the Christians during the introduction of the reforms.' 1 It is not, therefore, a question of Turkey being coerced. The only question is, Who will coerce her? Europe united? Or Russia single-handed? A threat from the former, or from any two of them, with a clear determination to carry it out in case of refusal, would subdue Turkish obstinacy without difficulty, as the threat of France and England, backed by the other Powers, did in 1861. This, however, the fanatical advocates of the 'independence' of Turkey will not hear of; and the alternative is the sword of Russia, which is exceedingly likely to put an end once for all, not to the independence' of Turkey, but to Turkey altogether. In one way or another, then, the question of how to deal with the disjecta membra of Turkey in Europe is likely to be forced on the attention of the Cabinets before many months are past; and it is well, 1 Blue Book, No. 2, pp. 50, 147, 169. CHAP. VI.] AUTONOMY FOR BULGARIA. 265 therefore, to familiarise our minds with the various plans of settling the Eastern Question which are likely to emerge on the field of political discussion. The Provinces immediately concerned are of course those which have been the theatre of recent insurrection and outrage-namely, Bulgaria, Bosnia, and Herzegovina. Let us see what elements they possess for self-government, or for some fresh political arrangement. And first as to Bulgaria. The Bulgarians, we are told, are so ignorant and degraded that they are not fit to govern themselves. This is one of the arguments used by the Turkish Government against the administrative autonomy proposed by the Conference. The Bulgarians, it urged, were, of all the Sultan's subjects, nearly the least informed and the most devoid of political capacity.'1 Let us grant the justice of the accusation for a moment, and solely for the sake of argument; and then I ask, Whose fault is it? The Bulgarians have been subject to Turkish rule for five centuries, and if they are now so unruly and brutal that they can only be kept in order by the methods adopted at Panagurishta and Batak, it is high time that they should be delivered from the curse of a yoke which has so degraded them. They enjoyed a high degree of civilization when the Turk conquered them, and he must therefore bear the responsibility of their degeneration. It would be a bad precedent in political controversy to give Tyranny the benefit of its own misdeeds, and to suffer it to produce the evidence of its misrule as a valid title to the right of prolonging it. 'Behold,' says the Turkish Government in effect, the 1 Blue Book, No. 2, p. 259. 6 |