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practically out of the question. Ten years ago Vladivostock might have been taken at the cost of great efforts. Within a short period Port Arthur will be absolutely unassailable by any force which Great Britain could employ. In the Far East, railways must compete directly with sea power, and rivalry between Great Britain and Russia will then assume a purely military character. The idea that the conversion of Wei-Hai-Wei into a 'secondary' or any other species of naval base will enable a fleet to check Russian projects is illusory. Unless Russia could be overpowered on land there would be no trade in the Gulf of Pe-chi-li for our navy to protect. Again, during the old wars the most important of the undeveloped colonies of other Powers fell into the hands of Great Britain. Surveying the map of the world to-day, we find no possessions of foreign nations that we have any real reason to desire. We have not now, as at the beginning of the contest with France, an empire to gain. It is our present task to hold and to develop. By proceeding to further over-sea conquests we should neither secure advantage to ourselves nor inflict material injury upon an enemy. Finally, attack on commerce is for Great Britain-a less formidable weapon than it was a century ago. We cannot now expect to impose arbitrary restrictions upon neutrals. There is little commerce afloat that we could attack without injuring British interests.

The conclusion seems inevitable that our sea power, relatively and absolutely more potent for the defence of the Empire, is distinctly less capable of exerting decisive pressure upon an enemy, and therefore of bringing a great war to a conclusion. By maritime conquests our Empire was won, and trade thus directly followed the flag. As Mr. Ellis Ashley has pointed out, it is now more correct to say that trade is the flag.' In peace time, it is clear that navies cannot directly promote trade, although the growth of trade provides, as in Germany, a strong plea for the increase of a navy. It is even possible that the construction of great fleets, by its demands on the industries of a country, may check profitable production. The promotion of national commerce is, as the Continental Powers have begun to discover, a question for Foreign Offices rather than for Ministers of Marine.

The conditions of the European Powers differ so widely from our own that there can be no true analogy of naval requirements. The one purely Continental war of this century in which sea power proved decisive was that waged by the German Confederation against Denmark in 1848-49. The Danish navy, in full command of the sea, and operating from an insular base, was able to give such substantial aid to the military operations that the siege of Fredericia ended disastrously and the Germans withdrew from Schleswig. The part played by the Russian navy in 1828-29 had an extremely 1 See Germany as a Naval Power,' Nineteenth Century, May 1899.

important influence on the campaigns both in Europe and in Asia; but in the then exhausted condition of Turkey the issue was predetermined, and in 1878, when the naval situation was reversed, the Russian army camped before Constantinople. The difficulties and the losses of the campaign, followed by the threat of British intervention, supplied Russia with a powerful incentive for the creation of a strong fleet in the Black Sea. In the war of 1866, the foolish attack on Lissa and the naval action which followed conformed strictly to ancient law, but the issue had already been determined on land, and the incident had no practical importance. In 1859, and in 1870-71, navies played no part. A FrancoGerman war, a Russo-German war, or a contest between the Triple and Dual Alliances, must evidently be decided by military success or failure. German trade in the Baltic and North Sea would suffer interruption in a war with France; but at a time when the whole effective manhood of both nations was drawn to the colours their industries must in any case suffer temporary paralysis. When Lars Porsena of Clusium undertook his march to Rome, Macaulay tells us that:

The harvests of Arretium,

This year, old men shall reap ;
This year, young boys in Umbro
Shall plunge the struggling sheep.

The pastoral needs of the Etruscans might be thus fulfilled; but the old men and the young boys of Germany will not suffice to supply the labour market during a general mobilization, and the withdrawal of her manhood would cause more serious interruption to trade than all the commerce-destroyers at the disposal of France. In 1870–71, Germany could give her trade no protection, and by blocking her ports with mines in fear of the attack of a French fleet which could not approach them, she incurred unnecessary losses. Nevertheless, from 1871 onwards German commerce has prospered exceedingly. The geographical position of Germany is such that no reasonable increase to the navy would enable her to despatch expeditionary forces to attack the colonies of France. On the other hand, France has no inducement to attempt the conquest of German colonies even if troops could be spared for the task. Concentration of effort upon the land campaigns by which the issue must be decided would be the necessary policy of both Powers. In a war with Russia, the fleet of Germany would neutralise that of her opponent in the Baltic. German communications with the Far East would be rendered precarious and Kiao-chau would have to take care of itself; but here, again, the inducement to either Power to expend energy upon subsidiary operations could not be great, since the ultimate decision must lie with the land campaign in Europe, whatever occurred elsewhere. It is difficult to conceive the Austrian navy as a really

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important factor in any great war. The fleet of Italy may, as has often been pointed out, be intended as a coast defence force to prevent France from supplementing an advance across the frontier by an over-sea attack. It is not, however, well constituted for such a task; it is a heavy drain upon a poor country, and except in alliance with that of a great naval Power it cannot look for any considerable achievement. Japan, with a growing trade, is building up a great navy, which. from the geographical position of its bases, must exercise a dominating influence in Far Eastern waters. Japan in alliance with a great naval Power will be able to secure the command of the Northern China Seas, and her formidable army would then be available for operations on land. In a Russo-Japanese war, sea and land communications would compete for victory, and the haste with which Russia is seeking to consolidate her position in Manchuria is easily explained.

At opposite ends of the world, therefore, two island nations, one purely from motives of self-protection and the other with dawning ambitions, are unwillingly supplying arguments for the expansion of navies. If Russia had been disposed to accept Mr. Goschen's offer and call a halt, the growing power of Japan-a far more uncertain factor than Great Britain-might have inspired other counsels. We have not perhaps sufficiently realised the menace of Japan, with her great and highly organised army within short striking distance of the latest territorial acquisition of Russia.

If we could regard eagerness to secure material prosperity by means of trade as the only cause likely to disturb the peace of nations, there would be hopes of a better mutual understanding. France has nothing to gain by adding to her ill-digested possessions. The rapid progress of the trade of Germany must satisfy her aspirations, and that progress owes practically nothing to so-called colonies. A good commercial treaty with Great Britain, such as M. de Witte probably desires, coupled with steady development of her immense territory, would do more for the prosperity of Russia than any further ventures in China. The trade prospects of the United States are magnificent, and they have Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines on their hands awaiting just administration and internal development. We cannot, however, regard trade rivalry as the only probable cause of war so long as such incidents as that of Fashoda can occur; and even if China is peaceably partitioned, as it may be, nations may fight on real or supposed points of honour. National pride does not easily admit a mistake, however flagrant, and in the mistakes of individuals the honour of a nation may unfortunately become involved. The new Court of Arbitration should in time be regarded as a means of appeasing honour without resort to war; but meanwhile we must be prepared to meet all reasonable probabilities. Our standard of naval preparations must

continue to be based on those of other Powers to whom naval supremacy is not an imperious necessity. Human nature being what it is, we cannot perhaps expect these Powers to recognise the facts that the competition is for us inevitable, that we desire nothing at their expense, and that a strong British navy is one of the most effective guarantees of the peace of the world.

On our side there must be no illusions. The navy is, from the Imperial point of view, a defensive force, more powerful than ever in that rôle, less powerful in some aspects than formerly as the final arbiter of war. To strike is the function of the field army. It is trade which enables us to maintain our present navy, and if that trade does not keep pace with our growing population, naval supremacy cannot be assured. If, therefore, foreign Powers can pass us in the race for commerce, they will compass the downfall of the Empire without any need for an inordinate increase of their fleets. Increase of territory does not, as is sometimes assumed, necessarily carry with it increase of trade. If this were so, French commerce would show an extraordinary advance. The basis of trade lies in the reciprocal needs of large populations of producers.

Lastly, the industries by which markets are supplied and the communications, land or sea, by which these markets are reached have, since 1815, come to depend more and more upon coal. The twentieth century will see a marked increase in the price of the coal of the United Kingdom. Of European Powers, Russia has by far the greatest reserve of coal. India, Australia, and South Africa will come to the aid of the Empire; but the United States must become the centre of the world's coal-supply, to be, in the far future, perhaps upplanted by China and Japan. How these changes will affect the relative sea-power of nations it would be rash to attempt to predict.

G. S. CLARKE.

A WOMAN'S CRITICISM OF THE

WOMEN'S CONGRESS

THERE is a story that Roger Bacon once invented a Talking Head, which after a time chattered so incessantly and senselessly that in a fit of anger he broke it up. I do not suggest any application of this fable to the Talking Congress of Ladies which took place in July last, but I think it may have involuntarily entered the heads of some listeners, with the wish perhaps that the extreme remedy taken by Roger Bacon-but, as Mr. Kipling would say in his earlier manner, this is another story. Whether or no the Talking Head was secretly pleased with its own chatter I know not, but it is surely not unfair to assume that the Women's Congress was pleased and gratified at its own performance; and, far from carrying out the historical parallel, is already arranging to hold another Congress at Berlin next year! Now it is not to be expected that a year will effect any radical change in methods and views, and it therefore seems justifiable, in the midst of the eulogy and triumph which are sounding on every side, for the critic to raise an inquiry as to the value of a Conference consisting of an overwhelming preponderance of women, which modestly undertakes within the space of ten days to discuss the principal problems affecting the human race. The radical defect of such a Conference, which included a heterogeneous mass of opinions, will be discerned at a glance, when it is understood that theories of a most startling nature, practically overthrowing present social conditions, were propounded from a purely feminine standpoint, and subjected in many instances to no sort of criticism or correction, each woman speaking her own words-sense in some instances; crotchets, crude ideas, and philosophical nonsense in others—and giving her own suffrage to what seemed best in her own eyes, without any reference to what had gone before or was to come five minutes later. There may be discussions which confuse the human mind, throw it out of its bearings, and even for a time impede it in the employment of means for the ascertaining of conclusions and principles, without which the social fabric, largely built up through the sound work of old-fashioned women now slumbering in church

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